Platform ROAS overstates true impact by roughly 33%. Brand search reports strong numbers while organic does the heavy lifting. PMax mixes everything into a black box. This kit gives you the tests, templates, and calculators to find out what's actually working - without hiring a $25K/month measurement firm.
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GA4 says one thing. Google Ads says another. Shopify says a third. And the brand spending $50K/month on Google Ads is left asking the same question everyone asks: which number is even real?
It's not a reporting problem. It's a measurement problem. Platform ROAS counts conversions that were going to happen anyway - the customer who typed your brand name into Google, saw your ad, clicked it, and bought. That "conversion" would have happened without the ad. Across 400+ audits, we've seen brands where ROAS improved 40% year-over-year while new customer acquisition dropped 30%. The dashboard looked great. The business was shrinking. And nobody caught it because they were flying blind on what their spend was actually doing.
Not theory. Not a course. A complete testing toolkit.
The Google Ads Incrementality Testing Kit gives you everything you need to run real incrementality tests on your own account - this week. The same I.M.P.A.C.T. Protocol framework we developed after analyzing 322 incrementality tests across the Measured.com dataset, cross-referenced with case studies from Haus, Polar Analytics, and our own 400+ account audit history.
8 chapters. 6 test protocols. 5 ready-to-use templates and calculators. 7 case studies with full ROI math. Brand search quick-test protocol. PMax isolation methodology. Geo-split design system. Statistical power tables. A quarterly testing calendar.
This is the toolkit for the brand that's tired of bleeding money on ads that might not be doing anything - and wants peace of mind for $197 instead of $30,000 a year.
| Finding | Source | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Platform ROAS overstates true impact by ~33% | Haus / Caraway 3-cell study | Your $4.00 ROAS is probably closer to $2.70 in real value |
| PMax median iROAS: $2.02 | Measured.com, 322 tests | PMax works - but less than the dashboard says |
| Brand exclusions in PMax: iROAS $2.17 (21% lift) | Measured.com | One setting change improved true performance by 21% |
| Brand search: $25K/month for 2% traffic lift, $950 iCPA | Polar Analytics / The Feed | That brand search budget might be worth $500/month, not $25,000 |
| eBay brand search: 99.5% organic replacement | Blake, Nosko, Tadelis (NBER) | The academic case that started the whole conversation |
| ROAS improved 40% YoY, new customers dropped 30% | Anchour analysis (anonymous DTC) | The efficiency trap - optimizing the wrong metric |
| Seidensticker: 11.5% higher revenue, 11.7% lower spend | Incrementality-based optimization | Simultaneous revenue increase + cost decrease |
| Uber: $35M reallocation after pause test showed no impact | Multiple sources | Even the largest advertisers find non-incremental spend |
Brands spending $50K/month with a 33% overstatement are misallocating roughly $16,500 every month. The kit is $197 once.
Core Playbook - 8 chapters, 6 test protocols, 7 case studies
Incrementality Test Design Template
Geo-Split Test Calculator
Results Dashboard Template
Brand Search Quick Test Protocol
Incrementality Testing Calendar
Lifetime Updates
Work through the kit. Run the I.M.P.A.C.T. Protocol on your highest-spend campaigns. Use the templates. Read your results.
The data to run your first incrementality test is already in your Google Ads account. You just need the protocol.
P.S. - One of the case studies in Chapter 4 covers a brand that spent $25K/month on brand search for years. Their incrementality test revealed 2% actual lift and a $950 cost per truly incremental conversion. They reallocated $24,500/month to growth channels the following week. That's $294,000 per year. The kit that would have caught this costs $197. Your numbers will be different - but you'll have numbers instead of assumptions. And that's the whole point.
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